Walmart’s Stock Earnings Forecast Nov 2025: What to Expect from WMT Ahead of Q3 2026 Results?

You know the feeling. You walk into the supermarket for “just a couple of things”, grab a coffee, bread, and some milk, and somehow you walk out $50 lighter. It doesn’t seem to matter how carefully you shop. A quick stop to the grocery now feels like a budgeting exercise.

From what shoppers are buying to how they are spending, Walmart is a good example to watch. Walmart is not just a store; it’s the largest retailer in the U.S. Reporting its earnings on November 20 before the market opens, its earnings can reveal how Americans are spending, how inflation is evolving, and where the retail sector is heading next.

Why Walmart’s Stock Earnings Matter

Walmart’s earnings are closely watched because they reveal how the average American is spending their money. The company itself highlighted its massive scale in its annual report, stating: “During fiscal 2024, we generated total revenues of $648.1 billion, which was comprised primarily of net sales of $642.6 billion.” With this reach, Walmart serves as a real-time indicator of consumer health. Recent consumer-spending research shows that shoppers are prioritizing essentials such as housing and other necessities, while cutting back on discretionary items like wellness services (Figure 1).

Figure 1: U.S. Consumer Spending across all three income groups, Last Updated Oct 27, 2025, Source: morning consult

This shift is vital for Walmart because it earns a large share of its revenue from essential, everyday goods. When consumers tighten their budgets, they often shift away from higher-priced retailers and buy more from Walmart instead. This means Walmart’s earnings can signal whether people are focusing more on necessities, indicating financial pressure, or if they’re beginning to spend on non-essentials again, suggesting growing confidence. In simple terms: how Walmart performs offers an early signal about the overall health of the U.S. consumer and where the economy might be headed next.

The Role of Inflation and Costs

Walmart continues to feel the impact of inflation and rising costs. In the latest quarter (Q3 2025), the company reported $177.4 billion in revenue, slightly above expectations, but earnings were weaker than analysts hoped, with adjusted EPS coming in at $0.68 instead of $0.74 (Figure 2). This shows that even though sales are strong, profits are under pressure.

E-Commerce: Walmart’s Big Growth Engine

Figure 2: Walmart Earnings (WMT), Source: investing.com

 A significant reason is the cost of imported goods. According to Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon, retailers previously avoided some tariff costs by stocking up on inventory before prices increased. Now that those older, cheaper products are gone, new shipments cost more, and these higher costs are starting to impact Walmart’s expenses. This makes even small inflation increases significant because Walmart operates on very thin margins, meaning any cost rise can quickly affect profit.

Walmart continues building its digital ecosystem through Walmart+, pickup, and delivery. Its latest quarter indicated how important digital sales have become to its business. While global revenue grew about 5%, Walmart’s global e-commerce sales jumped about 25%, growing 5 times faster than overall revenue. This includes strong growth in the U.S., where both Walmart and Sam’s Club online sales rose 26%, and solid international gains, especially in China, where more than half of Walmart’s sales now come from online channels.

What Analysts Expect from Walmart Stock Earnings on November 20?

Market estimates point to:

• EPS: ~ $0.60
• Revenue: ~ $177.45B
• Market Cap: ~ $808B

Source: investing.com

Analysts expect Walmart’s stock to report around $0.60 EPS and $177.45 billion in revenue and these results will serve as a key indicator of U.S. consumer health heading into the holidays. As per analyst analysis, if Walmart shows strength in groceries and e-commerce, it could signal a resilient consumer and a stable retail environment. But if discretionary spending weakens or cost pressures intensify, it may reflect growing financial strain on households, a trend that could spread across the retail sector. With Walmart’s massive influence on American shopping patterns, its November 20 earnings will help shape expectations for the entire industry, making this one of the most important retail updates of the season.