Nasdaq 100 Faces a Critical Week

Fundamental Analysis

Investors are turning their attention this week to earnings from major technology companies, led by Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. These results will be important in assessing demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing services, and whether the expected returns justify the substantial capital spending on AI infrastructure. Companies’ comments on revenue growth and future spending could influence technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100.

Investors are also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. Expectations lean toward interest rates remaining unchanged, making the Fed’s statement and its signals on inflation and the future path of interest rates key areas of focus. The Fed’s tone could affect bond yields and borrowing costs, which are important factors in valuing growth and technology stocks.

Technical Analysis

Figure: Nasdaq, H4, Trading View

The Nasdaq 100 is trading within a bearish structure on the four-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows. Following its latest decline, the index is consolidating near the low recorded at 28,818.26.

The price could rise in a corrective move toward 29,690.07 and 29,794.33, which form a supply zone based on Fibonacci retracement levels. The index could then turn lower from this zone and resume its downtrend, particularly if fundamental developments add to the pressure—for example, weak corporate earnings, positive results accompanied by negative forward guidance, or an unexpected tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

The bullish scenario would require the price to rise above 29,927.43 and form a higher high. This could signal a shift from a bearish to a bullish structure and open the way for the index to resume its advance.