USDJPY 4H Technical Analysis: Will the BoJ Step in Again?

USDJPY, Time frame: 4H

USD/JPY has staged an impressive recovery from the September low near 153.00, forming a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows over the past two weeks. The rebound follows an aggressive selloff that drove the pair from the 160.00 area toward the lows, creating a V-shaped recovery structure.

200-EMA Break in Focus

The most important technical development is the test of the 200-period EMA near 157.40.

The pair spent most of September trading below this long-term trend indicator, but the latest rally has brought price back into direct contact with it. The 200-EMA is often viewed as a key trend filter, making the current test particularly important for determining whether the recovery can extend further.

160.00–160.50 Supply Zone

The green-highlighted zone between 160.00 and 160.60 remains the major resistance area on the chart.

This region previously acted as support before the sharp breakdown earlier this month and is likely to attract renewed selling interest if the recovery continues. Price is still trading below this supply zone despite the recent strength.

Ascending Trendline Supports the Recovery

The rally from the September lows continues to be supported by a rising trendline. Recent pullbacks have respected this structure, suggesting buyers remain active on dips and that the short-term recovery trend remains intact.

As long as the pair remains above the trendline, the recovery structure remains constructive.

RSI Signals Strengthening Momentum

The RSI has climbed to approximately 68, its highest reading since the recent rebound began.

While approaching overbought territory, the indicator continues to trend higher, reflecting strong upside momentum and improving buyer participation. The persistent move above the neutral 50 level supports the current recovery phase.