Economic Impact of Black Friday 2025: The US Stock Market Under Spotlight

The United States of America is still struggling with delayed economic report releases, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and income reports to be further delayed, giving priority to reports like Retail Sales Index data ahead of the Black Friday holiday. This Black Friday is expected to attract a great deal of attention from economists and average struggling Americans battling rising costs of living.

Markets will also be shifting their attention to the Autumn Budget in the British economy. A budget that is considered extremely important for the first time in decades, as it will clarify the state of the British economy amidst an ongoing internal debate over income taxes.

Meanwhile, Japan has approved a historic stimulus package worth about $135 billion to boost the economy, as the country continues to battle high inflation at one end and economic tensions with China that threaten the fishing business on another.

Key takeaways:

• Black Friday is under the spotlight in the US this weekend.
• Other US economic reports join delayed data releases.
• Japan-China tensions heighten economic strains on Japan.
• Britain is on a date with the much-anticipated Autumn Budget.

Economic Impact of Black Friday on Financial markets: Nvidia dominates the show

1. The US economy

The US finally had income data released last week following the longest government shutdown in the country’s history. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) came more than double the expected, which begged the question: Will the Fed cut rates in its December meeting?

Speculations continued on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points despite some Fed members, including Steve Miran, commenting on their support for a rate cut at the next meeting.

Another crucial economic report, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, saw light last week, falling to 50.3 in November from 71.8 at the same time last year, when Trump won the presidential elections. The index has now neared its lowest level ever at 50, recorded in 2022, during COVID-19’s worst inflationary period.

On another front, new opinion polls show the US economy growing at the fastest rate in four months in November, with businesses regaining confidence following the reopening of the US government. This latter was showcased in the S&P Global preliminary Services PMI, which employs the majority of Americans, which rose to its highest reading in four months. For the PMI, any reading above 50 indicated an expansion, with readings above 55 signaling exceptional performance. 

The economic data report release and the Fed meeting minutes were not the only news for the US economy last week. Nvidia’s earnings release stole the show with exceptional financial performance and its CEO’s speech praising AI.

What’s next for the US economy on the data front?

Markets will have their eyes glued to US retail and food services sales and other delayed economic reports. Other reports to be released this week are the industrial production, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s Beige Book, which summarizes the current economic situation.

As for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year’s Q3, it will be rescheduled to be released along with October’s personal spending and income reports.

As these reports continue to be delayed, weekly jobless claims will become increasingly more important in order to get a better view of the US labor market, as many important economic data reports are delayed until after the next Fed meeting on December 16. 

US economy await Black Friday

The US market will be on a date with Black Friday this weekend, the largest shopping event in the year, extending through Cyber Monday.

Markets will keep an eye on the economic impact of Black Friday in order to get a clearer understanding of the extent Americans are struggling from rising prices, as Trump tries to calm its effects, especially as he removed tariffs on beef and Brazilian coffee imports last week.

2. The EU economy: Britain awaits the Autumn Budget

Preliminary PMI data for November showed a strong growth in business activity in the Eurozone for the 11th consecutive month, with businesses being generally optimistic about the coming new year as the new phases of the US-EU trade deal come to light.

The service sector has been primarily the driving force behind the growth, while manufacturing indicators remained weak.

As for annual inflation, it fell as expected, while slightly rising on a monthly basis, increasing the probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) not cutting rates in its next meeting this December.

This Wednesday, Britain will have its Autumn Budget released, the most anticipated it's ever been in decades. Markets will closely watch the budget details as the country battles ongoing economic challenges, starting with inflation and economic and investment slowdown, as well as high interest rates, taxes at an unprecedentedly high level, and the governing party’s 2024 reform promises.

3. The Japanese economy: First stimulus package to boost economy

Japan faces a challenge of another kind: the ongoing tensions between the nation and its cross-sea neighbor over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, an uninhabited chain of islands managed by Japan and claimed by China.

Tensions were on the rise after Japan’s new prime minister’s first speech, where she pointed out her country’s readiness to intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan. This ignited China’s anger, leading the government to ban its citizens from flying to Japan and to ban all Japanese seafood imports, which is a heavy blow to the Japanese fisheries sector. 

As stated before, Japan has passed its largest economic booster yet, a $135 billion stimulus plan to stimulate medium-to-long-term economic growth.

As for the economic data reports front, Japan had mixed releases. Exports, for instance, experienced visible recovery with resumed US demand for Japanese products. And when inflation remained high, the Japanese economy shrank some more in Q3, after it briefly recovered in Q2.

Japanese exports rose by 3.6% year-over-year in October, while semiconductor shipments increased by 15.8% and car exports rose by 0.4%.

As for inflation, it rose 3% in October compared to the same period last year, further complicating the Bank of Japan’s job, seeing as pressures will rise to hike rates to combat inflation and boost the economy.

4. The Chinese economy

China is considering putting a plan to support a struggling property sector, going into its third year, amidst the nation’s aims to improve domestic economic conditions and strengthen consumption, which remains below desired levels.

The Chinese market will probably have a calm week on the economic data releases front if it weren't for October industrial profit figures, which will show whether profit recovery continues following earlier export-driven gains.

How the Economic Impact of Black Friday Shapes This Week’s Economic Calendar