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According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, U.S. goods trade with the Middle East and North Africa region was estimated at approximately $141.7 billion in 2024. The U.S. exported $80.4 billion to the region, while importing $61.3 billion from the region.
This means that, overall, the U.S. has a trade surplus with the Middle East and North Africa region of approximately $19 billion, a 39.8% increase over 2023.
However, despite this fact, many Middle Eastern and Arab countries in North Africa, like others, have been subject to Trump's tariffs, which he announced on April 2nd. This could affect them differently.
While the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are subject to an additional 10% tariff, other countries will be subject to higher tariffs, such as Jordan, Algeria, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Tunisia. The basic 10% tariffs went into effect on April 5, while the additional tariffs will be effective on April 9.
Before delving into the issue of tariffs and Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa, it is important to note the mechanism Trump used to determine tariffs for each country.
The formula was as follows:
The country's trade surplus with the United States divided by its total merchandise exports to the United States.
After calculating the ratio, one of two approaches is applied:
According to this formula, six countries in the Middle East and North Africa fall into the first category (which will face high customs duties in addition to the basic duty (10%)): Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia.
Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen fall into the category subject to a 10% duty.
It can be noted that the United States has focused on goods in imposing customs duties, excluding services, given that the United States is the largest global exporter of services.
The following table illustrates the status of the US trade balance with the most prominent countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, as reported by the US Census Bureau:
Table: US trade balance with the most prominent countries in the MENA region
According to the table above, the six countries most subject to tariffs were Jordan, with a 20% tariff rate, despite it being the first Arab country to sign a free trade agreement with the United States in 2000.
In numbers, and based on Trump's approach, Jordan exports more goods to Jordan than it imports, such as clothing, precious stones, metals, and fertilizers.
This makes it less open to American goods, which has led to a larger surplus with the United States.
Returning to the surplus, this has also harmed Tunisia, which has a trade surplus with the United States of more than half a billion US dollars in non-oil goods.
The case of Syria is the most unusual, as its trade levels with the United States are considered negligible due to the sanctions imposed on Syria for years.
Gulf countries (including countries like Iraq and others like Algeria and Libya, which have the largest trade surplus among MENA countries with the US) may have greater flexibility in dealing with tariffs for two reasons:
First, the White House had exempted oil (oil, gas, and refined products) from tariffs.
Second, they are oil- and energy-dependent countries, which gives them the advantage of being able to find alternatives to the US market, either fully or partially, to direct their products too.
On the other hand, many MENA countries can deal with US tariffs through the economic alliances they have joined over the years, such as the BRICS group. In addition, some countries, like Saudi Arabia, are more open to global investment, serving their own vision.
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Disclaimer: The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.
