Gold at Its Lowest Levels Since November: What’s Next?

Gold Under Pressure as Dollar and Yields Strengthen

Gold prices continue to face strong selling pressure, trading near their lowest levels since November 2025 as the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthen. The move has been driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could further tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist.

These pressures intensified following comments from several Federal Reserve officials, who suggested that current interest rates may not be sufficient to bring inflation back to the 2% target. As a result, markets have increased their expectations for further interest rate hikes in the coming months. In addition, resilient U.S. economic data, particularly the continued strength of the labor market, has reinforced these expectations, while investors now await upcoming US employment data for further clues regarding the future path of monetary policy.

At the same time, markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments, which remain an important driver of gold price movements.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, gold is expected to remain highly sensitive to US economic data, particularly inflation and labor market figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials. Continued strength in economic data and higher Treasury yields could keep gold under pressure, while signs of a slowing US economy or declining expectations for additional rate hikes may provide the precious metal with an opportunity to recover part of its recent losses.

Technical Analysis

Figure: XAUUSD, H4, TradingView

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a broader downtrend on the four-hour timeframe, continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. The price also remains below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (blue line), signaling that the long-term bearish outlook remains intact. In the short term, gold continues to trade below both the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (red line) and the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (green line), which have acted as dynamic resistance levels, with price repeatedly rejecting them to the downside. This continues to support the prevailing bearish momentum over the short to medium term.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Looking at the latest market structure between the resistance level of 4,145.160 and the support level of 3,942.310, holding below the resistance at 4,145.160 keeps the bearish scenario intact. However, if the price breaks above this resistance and establishes a higher high on the four-hour timeframe, it could signal an early reversal of the prevailing downtrend and open the door for a renewed bullish move. On the other hand, if gold falls below 3,942.310 and records a lower low on the four-hour chart, it may indicate the likelihood of further selling pressure and additional downside in the sessions ahead.